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this morning. i don't how many of you have survived many congressional hearings like i do. sometimes i'm sitting there looking very intense, but it may fingernails drilling into my time to keep myself awake. that's the truth. but at the glorious assignment on the agricultural committee for being a person who chaired the senate committee on research that tom daschle shared. i have never been to such exciting committee hearings has those. he would put everyone up on the panel and get them in a back-and-forth engaged discussion with very pointed questions so we pulled out really important information about what we needed to do in the research enterprise. and so i learned so much from this man that it's just an honor to be here on stage with him. and of course, we are at the beginning of the second term for
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president obama and our great leader, tom vilsack has an opportunity to share with us visions for were going in the second term. it seems like a sequester come to sequester come to sequester and that certainly does weigh heavily on our shoulders, but nevertheless come were applied rumor going to do some incredibly great things in the second turned and i'm sure he's very excited to share that with you. i also want to recognize that we have a lot of young people in the audience from the outlook forum student diversity program, now in its seventh year. 20 undergraduates and for the first time, 10 graduate students are here to gain insights into food monoculture. so be sure to seek them out during the breaks. congratulate them for being here, mentor them over the course of a couple of days. that would be great.
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i know how these people are because i have an alumnus of this program who works in my office and these are the people who are going to beat american agriculture in the future. many thanks to our program partner, university of maryland eastern shore and the sponsors to make this program possible, chs, farm credit committee arrest and agriculture research service. students, could i ask you to stand please? [applause] thank you. congratulations. so without further ado, i am going to ask our chief economist to kick off this conference with the traditional presentation on his economic and foreign trade outlook.
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show clogger has been our chief economist for 15 years and before he was deputy chief economist before becoming the current chief economist and i know he is someone you rely upon. his analysis who has the trust of the secretary. so let us know what's going on. [applause] >> is very much and thanks for enhancing that revenue enmity may be chief economist for 15 years. that was good. i too would like to welcome everyone and i'm just delighted to see such a large crowd. we've had really great crowds the last two years has featured do to the program committee putting together such good programs.
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in my comments today, i am going to talk a little about the historic drought that affected the agriculture tastier. despite the drought committee act economy is very strong. our main come two weeks ago in near record highs in nominal terms for 2012 over 2013 projected net cash income close to record highs. exports are a record as we are going to find out and i think the financial situation is quite solid. low debt asset ratio and assets at record highs. however, the aggregate measures have sharp differences between sectors. producers say think have fared pretty well, those with high prices to record crop insurance indemnities which have helped offset the losses we saw this
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year. if you're an uninsured farmer or underinsured farmer, very think the crop loss are probably hitting those producers a little more than certainly those that have insurance. and if your poultry producer, this is the third year since 2007, where recent record high prices with the effects that had some higher feet past, type martian and particularly on the catalyst five, some liquidation. the outlook for 2013 in a nutshell they were expecting a rebound in yields. we should see record production for corn and soybeans. that means lower prices and improve profitability in the long run towards the end of the year, certainly for livestock poultry producers. if that sounds familiar me think i'm taking outlooks feature
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reading it, it does read similar to what we said last year. we came in with those stocks last year we're expecting record crops we know we know what happened. just to say there's a lot of uncertainty. one of the reasons we want to focus on risk and without the conference. i would like to go through as they go through the charts i will focus on some of the aspects. first let's go for the export picture. experts are forecasted a record of 142 billion for fiscal year 2013. that's down a little bit from what we carried in november about $3 billion last that will be carried in november, but still record high. the first three months of this year, $43 billion in exports is a staggering amount if you consider this, that's over exported annually in the early 1990s. search is tremendous growth
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since 2005, imports are forecast at $2112.5 billion down a little bit from our november estimates. given us a trade balance of almost $30 billion, 29.5 billion. for the spectator in a a row, china is our major export destination. remarkable growth they are since 2005 exports to china have been growing by 25% annually and they are now our top export market. if you look at what we're sending to china, no surprise it's dominated by and cotton. they have accounted in recent years as much as three quarters of total trade to china. but if you look at not minor, but still quite large exports for things like wars screens, corn for example, if you look at
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steve, distilled or dried grains other red meats, ec does are showing growth figures as well. in terms of overall exports, values are up for most of the commodity categories. again, these are experts on night fiscal year basis. you can see for most of these categories with one exception being core and, but largely the fair price driven events. we do see volumes up for some categories, but for most individual commodity categories we see lower volumes. the drought obviously having some effect but for most of the commodities being offset by higher prices for values thereof. the big difference though is this horrid and it's striking we are down 30%. on the fiscal year basis in terms of the volume explores and
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what that is meant as we are currently forecasting court experts at the lowest level the early 1970s. just a dramatic decrease in court experts such that if you look where we are relative to the rest of the world, corn as many of you know for many years was the number one exporter of corn. you don't have to go back to many years ago remain 70%, 80% of the market. that is the kind particularly since 2007 sec and the recent corneas for ethanol production. but tastier 70s and because of the increased growth of production and southern hemisphere and brazil in
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particular, we are likely to be a number two exporter on a fiscal year basis. i expect this to be a temporary situation svc the crops rebound this year. but again because of unusual circumstances of a record crop in brazil, but also the crop here in the u.s., we'll actually likely see brazil being the number one exporter for fiscal 2013. let's turn to the commodity balance sheet. i promised all of my commodity analyst i would give other details all the details out so they could have sent a to talk about tomorrow. i will hit the highlights. much like last year we are coming in with fairly those stocks globally for most commodities. because of problems in the black sea region and southern europe,
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we production is down this year and because of that in very strong demand for wheat is past few years, we've seen stocks get drawn down again at her lowest level since 2008, 2009, not quite a slow since 2007, to fascinate and again hopefully with a good strong production this year globally return to more normal weather, we should see those. very those stock bubble this project did for the current crop year. we are at the lowest ratio so you see these numbers hearken back to the early 70s. just to say this has been an unusual year for corn as has been drawn down, but particularly because of the
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drought. soybeans has been low stocks. we had a poor crop in south america last -- this time last year followed by problems with the soybean crop because of the u.s. soybean crop because of the child. currently concerned over the size of the argentina and brazil in crop this year. brazil still looks good, but driving in argentina has analysts looking at those numbers. the one exception is caught in you can see caught in terms of stocks here as days of use has increased dramatically over the last couple years. but that is driven by his china. because of policies to support producers, they've been acquiring a lot of grain. you can see cotton has increased
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substantially in china and currently account for 50% of inventories. if you look on a commodity basis, it is some 120%. that is certainly caused analysts to look at that and how sustainable that is and china is a large importer of cotton for its textile mills. and so, sir limit the assertive stock level overhanging the market, disbelieve some uncertainty and in the cotton market is in the forward into this year. let's turn to planning. obviously with the high prices, are expecting a strong plan aims for grains and oil seeds. sandy lands coming out crp jay
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shows the amount of acres that came out this past fall. around a million acres, most of northern plains. you can see by the coloration of those charts, or that of the area is coming out for the area first went in in the mid-1980s but this has been historically wheatland, but svc a lot of corn and soybeans creeping up in those areas. turning to the acres, last year the combined acreage for corn, wheat and soybeans was some 240 million acres. excuse me, 230 million acres. that's the highest level for the crops combined since 1982. in 1882, wheat was much larger back to. certainly we've seen some of the
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largest planning since the 30s we expect this year for corn to be strong again. it's partially because of the weather. we are sending more of a return to normal weather. the year started out great. they had a deal planning because of strong corn prices, a lot of people were able to get and corn. perfect planning conditions and the world turned ugly in june as the rain stopped in a lot of key states. this year we expect plan aims to be strong again. if you look at the soybean and corn ratio these days, it favors more than a few months ago and certainly as we move towards march we put up playing members at the end of march, this would be something certainly to look at. the one crop that sticks out is
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cotton. cotton prices have very, very strong grain prices. we should see some decline. that is no surprise and certainly the surveys we've seen would suggest that. what about yield? this of course is where most analysts are directing attention these days. if you look at the drought monitor and i daresay a few of you have looked at a child on the directv these markets closely. we still have significant drought in the central plains. the good news is if you were to look at this map six months ago, we would've seen significant drought and illinois, in vienna and western kentucky. that is actually improved a lot. the forecast put out suggests more improvement in iowa
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creeping into the western cornball, but the plane say things still look like they have a persistent dryness. that has immediate implications for the winter crop. the crop in kansas, oklahoma and nebraska, currently 50% of that area looking at the state crop conditions reporters. 50% is in poor or very poor conditions. obviously, spring rains are critical to see how that crop improves. otherwise we could be facing some serious abandonment issues for the hard red winter crafts. wayne is obviously very critical. what about the other crops? what we are looking not at least in our analysis is the release to try and heals. tomorrow's commodity sessions
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will have a paper they are on our yield models and explaining how we incorporate weather in most models. but i think both of these would result because we are expecting record crops for corn and soybeans this year. again, dramatic improvement for corn. remember last year between our may projections and what we ended up at the end of the year we lost 4 billion bushels. we expect them to rebound on my, about that amount this year. so a very big improvement there. we each is the one area of various concerned we anticipate a higher being that for the winter area. luckily because of that being in the eastern corn belt looks much better and hopefully we will see some rebound they are in terms
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of yields. but again, a critical question a lot of people are asking is why normal yields? why are we expecting another year of poor year olds? the answer is threefold. one of the senate should we have seen improvement. we assume the eastern corn belt a lot better than what we saw four or five months ago as a percent of total production in drought or total area in drought. we have seen improvement, 5% to 10% improvement over the last couple of months. the other thing is if you look at the data, there's little correlation between rainfall and one year and rainfall in the next year. most studies have shown that, so at least going into this year, there's a reason to think necessarily that we are going to
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be looking at a poor crop. lastly, there's some issue on so-called yield, would have been because of moisture. ig show you a real mawkish, economist thing here. all i did was take preseason by sharing iowa. i looked at that relative to what normally we see in iowa and then i looked at projected yields in iowa, tremulous relative to what we actually saw later that year. as you can see, there's little direct correlation here. it's hard to put a line through any of that to say there is a direct relationship between said soil moisture and resulted in yields. some you see on the bottom part of the graph are certainly years
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in 1988, which was actually, but also years we have low subsoil love those far above trend is not to say the last thing i want the relationship between drought in yields because obviously there is a relationship between drought and kneeled. but she has to say will be following this very carefully, at least at this point in time, there's no reason to think we won't be looking at verbal yields and again, the proof will be obviously as we look into spring. as we all know for corn, the critical month or so i have said oasis in terms of precipitation and temperature. let's turn to another issue and i'll try to speed up a little bit.
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i talked about ethanol every year because at the mall has been such a large charter in the corn market in the decision so it affects others as well. from 2006 to 2010, we saw ethanol production increase by almost 700 million bushels annually. it topped 5 billion bushels in terms of corn used in 2010 at similar levels in 2011, 2012. coming into this year with the drought oversaw high prices. we saw margins declined, ethanol production start to drop. but this chart shows are ethanol productions in the administration. an annualized sense you get a feel for what they look like if they were to for an entire year. and those lines represent the allowable caps under the renewable fuel standard, how
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much conventional ethanol can be applied towards me and the caps under the renewable fuel standard. you can see from this summer, this weekly numbers have been below the caps and we reduce our cornballcorn oil by 10%, we expect that will rebound a bit, we are still calling for calm as we look forward to 2013, 2014, still calling for about 4.675 billion bushels of corn going into ethanol use. it aired back obviously the fact or not allowing now. there's other reasons for that. certainly the margins should be better. the problems are on the demand side and reducing gasoline
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consumption at the time to energy act was passed in 2007. our forecast for ethanol -- excuse me, gasoline consumption was close to 150 billion bushels for 2014, 2015. just looking at a 10% penetration rate, that gives you 15 million bushels. instead however -- 15 billion gallons of ethanol. we've seen because of high prices that the recession and fuel efficiencies, gasoline consumption has declined. if you look at the eaa chart, that remind us what was both bad and the energy administration was project team for gasoline use in 2008. you can see another projections
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are for far lower than in the out years because a lot of other assumptions with some decline. the board for being is the next three or four years. the sun decreases there. if you look at penetration rate, we've been at a little under 10% , says the adoption of higher blends, i think we are looking at some fairly low numbers on terms of implied ethanol use. this is a very important issue of the puzzle, at least the outlook puzzle we've seen. it is again particularly compared to 2007, to fascinate with year-over-year increase, this is for the next few years flat and out for ethanol and will be an important factor in the market.
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let me get to the price is and then move over to income and start rapping. we should see i think some significant prices at these record crops. this is not too unlike what i was saying last year, but with the service of things we should see corn prices, sees an average price is below $5. again, a deep shop from where we are. wheat prices come down a bit as well. soybeans down. some improvement for rice and cotton largely due to the domestic talent she's such a type of the day. that's going to obviously improve feed margins for cattle producers. feed ratios have been very low. you can see the long-term decline over the last seven, eight years. understand there has been a lot
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of activity in the series, so they don't necessarily mean problems. since 2007 with a three price hikes with the poultry sectors. as a lookout we should see some improvement there. we are certainly expecting prices to increase. our current prices for cattle broilers are forecasting record highs. these are all very high prices for the meat and poultry and dairy markets. however, what i think will be the real benefit to the sector will be lower prices at the end of the year and hopefully the critical thing but the problems
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the cattle sector had, we lost 3.4 million for the last two years in kansas, oklahoma and texas alone. the rest of the nations heard was pretty much constant. with losses and gains are offsetting. the drought in texas two years ago and this past year has really affected cattle there. we have the 60 some odd% of the conditions over the summertime to send drought. a critical thing for bees and dairy will be better means early on in the spring so we see some improvement posture or we could unfortunately see further liquidation. all this means for food prices we will see transmission of higher prices into higher food
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prices. ers is currently projecting food inflation to increase by 3% to 4%. they believe there is a session on that later today. but it is important to realize that current levels if you look at the most recent month, in fact the report came out today, which i don't have the numbers for, but our current levels vary though. 1.3% year-over-year, but we will expect that to increase. nsa say come at ers is forecasting sent 3% to 4% for 2013. high, but not nearly high as oversaw 20,842,011. as a mentioned at the outset, ers food numbers on that farm income. net cash income done a little
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bit busier at $123.5 billion. that is found, which you can see still in nominal terms relative to recent years. we recorded a record in 2012. record received the last couple years approaching some $400 billion. i mean, just phenomenal. you can see how rapid that has been in the early 2000, 2002. so i doubt they not receive over the last 10 or so years. ..
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>> not quite as low as 2009. the real question is is can we get through 2013 without the same issues. where we are getting to the late summer and early fall, where we should be feed prices come down to help profitability is return. >> with that, let me wrap up.
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i would just like to say again, this sounds like déjà vu order something to you have heard before. admittedly, it is very similar to our forecast last year. i think that obviously the big issue, the critical factor here is leather. it certainly with drought and the nation watching the weather carefully, people will be concerned. we are going to return to more normal weather hopefully, and hopefully we will get some higher yields. which should help moderate
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prices and return these to the proper sectors. with that, i thank you. for many of you who are out there listening, he started as a lawyer in iowa. a small town. he became a two-term governor and the great state of iowa. a candidate for the president of the united states. and then our secretary of agriculture. he is commencing his second term come along with the president he
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is really pointing out some issues that we really need to grapple with in american agriculture and how we make sure that people across the beltway and our country understand the importance of what goes on in rule america. he does so with passion and finding ways to help others come and he is the hardest working secretary of our culture that we have ever had. please welcome tom vilsack. >> thank you very much. i think the deputy for that kind introduction and for her leadership on local and regional
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food systems. which has become a local and regional part not just of agriculture, but the rural opportunity in america. it is amazing every year that we come here. i would like to thank you for putting on this conference. every year you all come here, and joe, every year you give the same darn speech. [laughter] but it could be worse, right? it could be worse. particularly i would like to thank senator daschle for spending a few moments with us today. as the deputy indicated, folks in washington dc have the highest level of respect. thank you very much, senator,
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for taking your time. here is what happens when joe and jerry get together. they put on a program and they decide to put a title on it. everywhere i walk, i see these big posters. there is managing risk in the 21st century. and i thought to myself, well, this is an opportunity for us to celebrate the fact that we do, indeed have expanding exports at record levels, and we have biofuels, as joe indicated, into the economy, we are making more product chemicals and a variety of things. we have the local and regional food system expansion, which has been great news. we have seen record expansions and all of the deputy's works.
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we have over a half million produced with record numbers of farm income and even more excitement among the young people about agriculture. the other day i was at an iowa at the world food prize headquarters and a young lady said that she wanted to thank the usda for the work it has been doing recently. and i said, i appreciate that. assuming she was going to talk about the record farm income or record income, what she wanted to thank us for was she majored in agriculture, and she said she was a bit humbled and sort of embarrassed when she would tell her friends and family what she was doing. but because of what has been happening in agriculture today, the activities of the usda, those in this room, agriculture
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is cool again, she said. we have some great young people here today who are passionate and excited about their future careers in agriculture. i'm thinking to myself, what is joe worried about? why do we have to manage these things, that seem to be going in the right direction. now, i began to make the list of all the things we actually should be concerned with. what donned on me is when you talk about agriculture and rest, you talk about the weather. you talk about the drought. but the uncertainty and the risks of agriculture today, they are in many cases man-made. let me give you two examples. there is risk with uncertainty to budgets. we all know that march 1 will come. if it comes before congress has
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acted, what it means for the usda is every line item of our budget will have to be reduced by a certain percentage. and that percentage could be somewhere in the neighborhood of five or 6%, that is an annual percentage, which means that we have to implement this reduction in the remaining portion of the fiscal year. which will be at approximately six months. that means it is the impact of the remaining resources. unlike normal circumstances where the congress will direct you to reduce funding to give you the flexibility to choose where and how, this is direct from congress to reduce every line item by the same percentage. now, if you're fortunate to be in an agency or part of the department that has some degree of flexibility, if you happen to
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be in an agency like food safety, where you have very few lines, and where most of the lines involve people and labor, you have very little recourse. that is a risk that we face. the only way we can absorb a cut of this magnitude is by the impact of people who work in food safety area of the usda. we all know that only do this, it does not just impact these workers, it impacts all the processing is so these implants across the country. there is a way to resolve this. congress can give us flexibility and say that we really didn't need every line item across the board in six months, but they could come up with a larger deficit reduction package that would avoid the question. if they fail to act, we are required by law to invoke the
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sequester, we will do we have to do. the usda is guilty of spending money it doesn't have under the anti-deficiency law. there are civil and possibly criminal penalties associated with that. >> it may be something that we have to do. the same thing was true on march 27. march 27 pounds, if congress has not continued the budget process and provided a continuation of the resolution would pass the budget, theoretic all government activity stops. that would impact our trade promotion efforts. it would impact the ability to deprive credit to farmers we
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know that the senate passed a farm bill last year, we know the house agriculture committee passed a farm bill last year, but it did not get done. those dairy producers, poultry producers in 2012 committee were not afforded the opportunity to have the disaster assistance that wasn't in effect a year before. we now face a financial risk. we need a farm bill.
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after all, they provide this country with some extraordinary security. we are a nation that can feed itself. make no mistake, this is not something that can be taken for granted. many, many countries around the world cannot say that. it makes us a stronger and more secure nation. brought forth by american farmers and ranchers. they are working and we need to complement production our culture with the bioeconomy. a future where every aspect of what we grow and raise can be used to produce virtually everything we need in our
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economy. you can't do that without a expansion of food and fun spurred you cannot continue to see the expansion of entrepreneurial opportunities that food expansion creates an rural areas, unless you have a five-year program. you certainly can't resolve trade disputes, significant trade disputes, and including the one we had with brazil over cotton. which could jeopardize us in this country with the application of a serious penalty without a five-year job still. those are risks in today's agriculture world that can be resolved with congress doing its job and getting a bill passed. then there is the uncertainty of labor.
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we're agriculture relies on immigrant labor. everyone in this room understands that a good deal about labor is not necessarily in the country legally. and that has been the case for a long time. we are beginning to see this. there certainly weren't enough hands to pick the crops. we created a system in this country that understands and appreciates the importance of labor and creates a set of reforms that secures our border and puts responsibly on those who are here illegally, to pay back taxes, pay a fine, and learn our language, and create an opportunity for the folks to
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be here legitimately. we continue to enjoy the diversity of our culture that we have, and that we can continue to afford the luxury of having some of the least expensive food in the world. despite joe's report about inflation at three and 4%, that is actually more than normal rate than inflation. we still, in this country, we enjoy the fact that less than 10% of our paychecks are spent on food. you go to most other developed or developing nations, you are going to pay 15%, 40%, 50% of your paycheck for food. not only be ranchers and producers and farmers in the system here create those enormous diversity and food security that we enjoy, but it also comes to us at an affordable price. but there is a risk.
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if we do not have comprehensive immigration reform. a man-made risk that can be resolved. the uncertainty of trade barriers also exists, created by other nations. right now we are dealing with a decision made by russia to impose a ban of october mean, that is not scientific, ended his contract to -- contradictory to the law. it is stated very clearly that our expectation that russia will reverse that decision. fortunately we got some good news yesterday, and the scientific commission has now indicated that the u.s. cannot be considered a risk nations for bse, hopefully that will be confirmed this summer.
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with additional opening of markets. particularly, for our crops. last month, we talked about the opportunity that japan is a 40 for a wider market, which is good news. we have the free trade agreement and the opportunity that that presents. we have also seen mexico relaxed some of its restrictions on beef purchases, and today, hong kong was joining that list by indicating the willingness to take all of its own beef products of any age, less than 30 months. an expanded opportunity we're where the trade barriers are coming down. the beef barriers exist. it is important to have the resource and personnel to advocate for american farmers and ranchers all over the world, which is a barrier to construction, and we have to
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tear them down. now, those are all risks that we face in agriculture today that are all man-made. they can be resolved with action by congress or by the international community following signs and rules. there are, however, risks that we cannot control. joe talked about the drought. following the consequences of the drought last year, the president directed us to create a drought task force, which was made up of all federal agencies to try to mitigate the impacts and effects of drought. that led us to begin thinking at the usda about steps we can take to help producers during the very difficult times, we took a series of steps that try to mitigate the consequences, we opened up crp land and provided relief on premium payments of crop insurance and things of that nature. but it also got us thinking, were there other steps, other
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things we should be doing in order to provide health and assistance. perhaps we should be focused more acutely on the need to encourage multi-cropping throughout the united states, in order for us to do a better job of conservation, in order for us to create additional revenue sources and potentially allow us to conserve precious water resources with the use of crops, which would allow us to get through these drought circumstances in a more favorable circumstance. so we have begun the process of looking at ways in which we can provide assistance. you will be fortunate to hear from david brandt, who is here and will give a presentation during the course of this conference. he has a nutrient management system that he has put in place since the 1970s that involves multi-cropping and double
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cropping. he tells us that this is to increase the organic soil matter in his soil, and it saves about $100 an acre on nitrogen. it increases his corn yields seven to 10 bushels an acre and soybean yields a percent. that is something that ought to get everyone's attention. and that the usda, we ought to look at ways we can reduce the man-made barriers from all the multi-cropping, so that that can be another strategy for managing risks. recognizing that there are different types of multi-cropping, whether it is cover crops or an integrated crop livestock arrangement or even agri-forestry rate we are going to spend time researching market availability to the lack of insurgents were the difficulties of the crop insurance programs that discourage multi-cropping. looking at the effect on the
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yields of the primary crops that are being planted, where our knowledge gaps exist in terms of the supply chain and the delivery system, so that we can encourage more of this activity. we will use our conservation innovation grant money to provide some financial assistance at nrcs, that will provide producers a lot of information about what currently is working in multi-cropping arrangements around the country. they are great examples and will provide information on the steps that we will be taking to it reduces barriers that we have created within the usda we hope that we will do a better job that will come from multi-cropping and give us another tool to deal with changing agriculture and managing the risks of whether. now, as we started thinking about multi-cropping, it occurred to us that indeed, we
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have a diverse agriculture in this country. there are different production systems that people want to use. some folks may want to use ge technology and some people may want to go a conventional way, others may want to be organic producers. it is important to us at the usda to recognize and to respect all production processes. in trying to make sure that everyone has opportunities to choose the types of operations that are best for their families and themselves. that is why we have put together a group of folks, and we challenge them to create a system and think about how we can create a system in this country with different production processes that coexist in the same geographic area. recognizing that this is a tough question. and there are passions on all sides of the issue. we have put 22 people in the room for about a year and a
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half, we had great leadership and these folks worked really hard. they worked hard to come to a set of recommendations and conclusions. they basically modeled what we ought to be doing more frequently, which is coming together and figuring out where the common ground is. where are the moderate middle is. they came up with a series of recommendations for what we call the ac21 committee. today, we are posting the next steps of the process on our website so that we can show those folks that we are following through on the recommendations and we can tell producers of all types but there are ways in which we can provide health and reduce risk that may be part of the production process in the same state. we are going to engage in research and look at ways in which we can create measures to strengthen this notion of coexistence. part of that research will focus on creating an inventory of
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actual economic loss. there will be the ability to know precisely how often there will be circumstances where crops are compromised as a result of activity in other areas. we are going to do case studies. we will better understand and case studies exactly what the challenges and barriers are to this notion of coexistence. we hope to be able to develop the best practices to be able to provide information, so it's folks are looking at coexisting plans or stewardship efforts, they will know precisely what works best. we are going to create a competitive grant, and the grant will fund a conference that will be held this year. we will bring experts and to discuss information about this so we have a better understanding about what is happening. so in turn we can mitigate the risk of that occurring, what could potentially be damaging to someone else is crops. we will continue to look at ways in which we can indemnify or
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compensate those who may have suffered an economic loss, we will have a better handle on how the price and premium is associated with those crops, a different commodity, if you will. and it may not work quite as well for organics as it does for conventional agriculture. that will give us enough information to be able to do a better job of understanding how to set up insurance policies and programs for organic crops. we will focus on quality. this spring we will launch the national genetic advisory council, we will be tasking that counsel was looking out how we can evaluate the ability of producers that may be working and producing in a ge sensitive market. we will review in the valley the
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best management practices for testing and monitoring and maintaining the purity of publicly held concerns about that. we will hopefully continue that. >> it is part of managing risks. then there is the large risks, the long-term risks that we face. with the changing climate. i will conclude with this. there is no question that the climate is changing. we have recently furnished to assessments from the usda on the impact of changing climates on agriculture and forest tree, and the conclusions were fairly obvious. higher temperatures leads to more intense weather patterns? more intense weather patterns
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leads to greater stress of crops and livestock. we have a responsibility at the usda to figure out ways in which we can mitigate the risk is something that we really can't control, and a sense, when it happens. we cannot control when a drought occurs. we cannot control when a horrible tornado hits or when flooding occurs. but we can take steps to mitigate the effects of that. here's what we have done and here is what we are going to do, we have a climate change adaptation plan, and we are outlining practical steps that can be taken to reduce this risk. we are expanding forecasting so we have better models to give people a sense of what happens with weather patterns and how it affects diseases, which is a risk that we need to control. we need to and sent an increase
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our efforts in soil health management we will have the ability to work with our partners to create a web web portal that will provide information on climate and weather. in turn we will have enhanced ability to adjust losses quickly and more accurately. we challenged the poor service to begin incorporating practical applications for mitigation and adaptation strategies in our planning and management system. the next steps require developing a roadmap. we want to provide practical advice for our farmers and ranchers in ways in which they can reduce risks on our property. we want to provide better support materials so that they can have help despite the
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drought, given this event and severity of the drought. and the reason is because of the technology that our farmers use. we need to better supply climate change research, we need to make sure that we have resources going into the research so that they can provide you the ability to manage this risk. we need to improve our outreach and extensions of the information we have an opportunity to provide help and assistance is disseminated more widely. we will be able to do this by organizing this effort perhaps around regional hubs where we will recognize the differences of climate and the difference is that climate has on various crops that are grown in different parts of the united states we understand that
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different regions have different needs. we are going to be aggressive in this effort because we understand and appreciate after the floods of 2011, and the drought of 2012, folks need this help and assistance. by taking these actions, we can hopefully mitigate and manage risks. why is this important? it's pretty obvious. rule america, as -- rural america, it is the number one place for food production in this country. the number one place for most of the water that is consumed everywhere. it is the number one source of energy and renewables. in virtually every speech i
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give, we served admirably and bravely in the military. it is an important place in america. people are working hard and not important place and they require us to do everything we can to allow them to continue to help make us a more secure and stronger nation. they will be able to deal with weather-related risks. they have, historically. what they need is for us in washington dc to act and cooperate and to agree and to compromise and to get through the process so we are not faced with budget uncertainties. that we do have a five-year farm program that provides a strong safety net and incentivizes the types of activities that can encourage greater economic
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growth. that we can continue to knock down trade barriers and resolve the farm laborer issue with a decent immigration law. that is what they deserve. at the usda, we are going to do everything that we can to help make that happen. we need you to be engaged in this process. we need you to encourage those in congress to help us help you. we want to continue to make agriculture cool. we want these young people to be inspired. we want to let them know that agriculture is the answer to the moral dilemma of our time and how we feed an ever increasing world population as resources become scarce. it is agriculture in rural parts of the country and around the world that will provide the adaptation and mitigation strategies to control and mitigate the impacts of climate change. it is agriculture.
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in rural parts of this country, it will provide a new energy future for this country. it is agriculture that will help spur a new american economy. one that is focused again on making innovating and growing in manufacturing and exporting. that is why this is important. it is absolutely dependent in this nation to manage this risk that we identified today and over the course of the next couple of decades. it is that important to this country. you all can help. one man who understands this is senator daschle. when it comes to his service in the nation, the air force, his extraordinary leadership in the house and senate, being the only
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person who can serve as a majority leader and minority leader, that says a lot about this man in terms about his counterparts thought of him. the reason i talk about him as a father and grandfather, i believe you can tell the measure of a man or woman by his family skills. tom has three great kids. i have the pleasure of knowing all three. his son, nathan, is a social entrepreneur. his daughter worked at the usda. and she did an extraordinary job of helping to lead an effort with president obama, lindsey
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basically led that effort. and she left the usda because she had a calling. a calling to help kids in trouble. she is pursuing an advanced degree in social work and her proud father told me just a few days ago that she was getting straight a's. what he is going to share with you is his insights. i saw him the other day at lunch and one of the restaurants in washington dc. what impressed me the most about what he saw was that virtually no one passed by the table without greeting senator tom daschle. ladies and gentlemen, senator tom daschle. [applause] [applause]
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>> thank you, for that very generous introduction. it is so nice to be with all of you and to be here this morning. and i do mean, in the morning. only at an agriculture conference can you hear for speakers by 9:00 o'clock. [laughter] tom vilsack just gave us an eloquent and powerful analysis of the risks we face in agriculture. man-made and natural. but it was a reminder of the extraordinary leadership that we have with our secretary of agriculture today. i consider him a very dear friend, and i consider him an unparalleled public service and someone i admire, particularly because of his mentorship and the young daughter of mine, lindsey. so i thank him for all that he does, not only for my family, but for all of us each and
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everyday. i would also like to thank kathleen and joe for their thoughtful presentations today. i don't know about you, but i have learned a great deal just from the first hour of this conference, and we have a lot more to go. you talk about dedicated public service. leaders who serve with selfless determination. you have three of them here at the table, and i am honored to be part of the program this morning. [applause] i am reminded of an open door meeting in the rural part of south dakota. several years ago. i used to hold these public meetings, as i know that tom
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vilsack has done for iowa many years. he said, tommy, what is the difference between a democrat and a republican, when he was at the bar. and i said, sir, when you are sober, i will give you an answer to that question. he said, when i'm i am sober, i don't give a darn. [laughter] agriculture is in democratic or republican. it is not partisan at all. but i believe it should unite us. in south dakota, we have a
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special term to describe agriculture issues. we just call them issues. i was very fortunate to spend 30 years on these issues in congress. attempting to put rural america's agenda on the forefront, and almost everyday since every day since i left the senate, i am reminded that agricultural issues, food security issues, they do not stop as tom said so far as the prairies edge. these are national issues. they are global issues. farming and food security are beginning to receive the attention they deserve. president obama has launched a new alliance for food security and nutrition with a goal of raising 50 million out of poverty over the next decade
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alone. city kids are going back to work. grandparents ranchers, farmers are having their own online dating service, and the most talked about super bowl commercial courtesy of the late paul harvey, was the dodge ram tribute to the american farmer. what is that kenny chesney song? she thinks my tractor is sexy? [laughter] you know, there is truth to that. it is increasingly important. it turns out that it was february 21 of 1865. 140 years ago today.
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patent number 46,454 was issued. i won't give you a pop quiz. it was simply labeled the john deere plow. but the implements sketched implement sketched out on the pitch could just as easily been labeled as one of the most important events of american history. they called it the plow that broke the plains, and the dead and it did. it made it possible for talent like aberdeen, south dakota, before the plow, plowing a full acre took a good 24 hours. afterwards, it took about five
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hours. there was an assumption of what the land could produce. that is not just a story of agricultural success, but of national success. and of global progress. this kind of game changing innovation has enabled us to leap ahead, break the plains, increase harvests, and feed the whole world. these innovations sometimes come from the most advanced science. and it comes to look most important at the problem. all of them break down to food security and allow us to plow a path to progress. today more than ever we need the new pathways forward.
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everything from japanese livestock to american beer is impacted. food shortages could force vegetarianism. patent endings raised new biotechnology issues. global crop production shows some signs of stagnating. could climate change al qaeda's best friend in africa? i could list dozens more. it all adds up to a perfect storm of challenges for global food production, and as a result, it challenges for the global economy and quite literally for global security.
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it can make up the perfect storm. i am reminded of what mark twain reportedly observed. by land, they are not making it anymore. any more. in fact, i wish that mark twain was right. the truth is that global warming is making less, so we need to do more with the land that we still have every year, 7 billion of us on this earth use a planet and a half of resources. 870 million people worldwide still today go to bed hungry. by the year 2050, there will be over 2 billion more mouths to feed, many of them in the developing world. to keep up with is rapidly
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rising demand, we will need to increase global food production 70% by the midcentury. as assistant secretary josé fernandez said, that means producing as much food in the next 50 years as we produce in the last 10,000 years. think about that for a minute between now and the time that our children can attend these conferences our own, we would have to grow as much food as we can from the dawn of recorded history until today. and we will have to do it without more land. which anyone who works close to the land can plainly see that it
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is due to the effects of the land. national geographic asked the question, what is up with the weather? it is a very fair question. last year was the hottest on record in the united states come with massive droughts leading secretary tom vilsack to declare more than half of the united states county's primary natural disaster areas. one characteristic deep freezes have given way to the destructive wildfires. food and agricultural organization -- talk about disasters of the booker proportions. you cannot make this stuff up as the secretary has shared with us, these natural disasters are leading to higher crop insurance
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at a time when the federal government is facing a brutal fiscal crunch. some folks may believe that more co2 may actually benefit agriculture, it does not look that way in the long run. crop yields are down 2% or 3% globally, for every 1 degree of celsius increase of an average temperature, the yields decreased by an average of 5%. climate change is projected to grade up to one fifth of the arable land in the developing world. meanwhile, i believe this is a regrettable oversight, we are not invested enough to improve agricultural productivity. right when the growing population and warming climate require us to do more with less. here at home, as the secretary
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just said, the shortsighted fiscal policies are leading us to/funding for agriculture research and land grant universities. that includes low income countries. as of 2008, agriculture investments were less than half than what we did 30 years ago. less than half. while there is evidence of the increasing agriculture in the private sector especially, there remains a 79 billion-dollar difference in italy between -- what they need to feed their people in low income countries.
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it has climbed to below recommended levels, even while the population triples by the end of the century. as i said, it is a perfect storm of pitfalls and challenges. if you all look closely at your programs, you will see my name listed as tom daschle. i am not here to preach doom and gloom. i am something of an optimist, and i think anyone who lives to tell about it has to be an optimist. [laughter] we are weathering the perfect storm. it is possible if only we have the wisdom and the will power to rethink our approach. what do i mean by that? well, i know a lot of you are
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very familiar with 4-h. well, this is what i consider the four d's of global involvement. defense, democracy, development, and food security is essential to every one of those. consider the state of our national defense. it is contingent on our food security. it triggers stability and threatens global security around the world today. if not before, this has been made clear in 2007 and 2000 and.
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as a changing climate contributed to rising food prices, which led to riots around the world. food and water scarcity is quickly becoming a leading cause of global instability. agriculture uses 70% of the globe's water. and while i think that we can all agree that feeding people is a great way to use resources, coming together to resolve the water and food scarcity will be central. it will be central to a strong national defense. it is not just food security. the overall national defense is multifaceted and plays a critical role in our energy security as well. just last week, secretary tom vilsack highlighted the importance of biofuels and strengthening our energy independence. the investments of the usda made
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in advanced biofuels, as you already know, former secretary leon panetta was a vocal advocate for diversifying our military's energy resources. from biofuels drones to a green fleet, hopefully as early as next week we can meet. for all of these reasons, i have been a supporter of renewable energy and i am a supporter of what is good for our national security, as well as our farm economy. whether we are talking about food or water or energy security, let me put it this way, in the future, more crops in the field can mean fewer soldiers in the field. at the same time, as important
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as our defense capabilities have been, we also need to rebalance towards the other three d's. the u.s. today spends more on defense than on diplomacy, democracy, and development all put together. meanwhile, in the past year, china has more than doubled its investment in developing new agricultural technologies. those are the kinds of farsighted policies that are enabling china to emerge as a world power, in which we frankly need to get back to you. as we shift our focus and our resources towards smarter and more constructive forms of international interactions, it is critical that food security remain at the center of shaping the secure world. when it comes to security, that means government to government
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relationships. like a promising feed the future initiative. initiatives like this our country by. and they focus on solutions to enable countries to take ownership of their own development. it also means that farmers can participate meaningfully and democratically in governing their own. smallholders feed an estimated 80% of the population of asia and yet these farmers often have no voice in the future. it also means empowering women, who represent 43% of smallholders. land rights and ownership can help women realize their potential, which in turn
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benefits families, communities, and these countries themselves. last week, building a secure interconnected global is part of development. which has only recently begun. it also means private sector development that simulates entrepreneurship and empowers individuals. it advances the goals of the first three d's, agricultural development is the most critical towards a national economic development program. it enables farmers to feed their
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families and ultimately strengthen these local economies. growing economies lead to private sector investment, which only further allows for the economic growth and development to which we all aspire. that translates to american exports and increases production for american funds. because this is so essential to the well-being of the world, i would like to spend my remaining time talking about what it will take to achieve these advances and share the developments. here is how i view the opportunities today. recently i came across a chart that brilliantly illustrates the global imperative to promote agriculture development difficulties that we face.
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it consists of two side-by-side hydrides, which is appropriate because the graphic is about food. one shows the distribution of the worlds population. many of the high wedges are wildly disproportionate. east asia and the pacific contains 14% of the world's land, but must support 31% of the globe's population. that ratio can actually be reversed for oecd countries. especially when it comes to calories, which rich nations are experiencing over nutrition and poor countries are experiencing undernutrition. connecting people to food will only become more difficult. roughly 70% of the global
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population migrates to cities by 2050. further away where the food is grown, requiring new ways to prevent waste and enhanced nutrition. here is another illustration. one should stick out from all the statistics that i have thrown at you so far, the fact that there is one thing that i hope you will remember from my remarks this morning, it would be this. it is just breathtaking to me just to say this. a full 30 to 50% of food in the world goes to waste or is on eaton. that is one of the most amazing statistics that i will ever articulate. up to half of our total global output.
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roughly 85% of the food produced never crosses international borders. that is a major obstacle in the world. when it comes down to it, we need to produce more, higher quality, more nutritious food. ..
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and many forms seeing each and every single day. we can connect rural farmers to expansion markets and best practices that the use of mobile technology, improving crop yields. we can enhance nutritional content of crops and foods through fortification to reduce fat, salt and sugar content. modern irrigation and other water management practices enable farmers to more efficiently irrigated crops and reduce water wastage. thanks to the great worker firms like raven industries and my native state of south carolina, farmers use precision farming solutions such as gps technology to increase yields while using fewer inputs. but innovation is not just about
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science. sometimes innovation is about creative collaboration and partnership that provides new% does to address complex challenges. the global food security index created by the economist intelligence unit with the support of the pond is an invaluable tool that measures the core indicators that dry food security, affordability, availability, quality and safety. across 105 countries. the index can tell us why some countries are more prone to food and nutrition insecurity than others, enabling targeted investment and country specific solutions. innovation comes in very both forms the result from the is. linda gates recently drove during an npr interview you may have heard about 90th of one of her staff time to use by the
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size as an anti-malaria mosquito repellent. everyone dismissed the idea, but it turned out to be a very good one and a similar method is now being used. feed in an unequal world is a growing population and shrinking resources will require new ideas, both big and small and agricultural advances of all kinds apply to new ways with new partners. let me to pay as much attention to innovation for photosynthesis as we do to innovation and photo sharing. if we want the u.s. to be the hub of this innovation, will need to do much more to support agricultural development. we need serious, sustained public, private investment in researching it ologies. despite wasting all that food,
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only 5% of research today is to study and loss prevention. we can't just invest in r&d and how problems barak mostly saw themselves. as they see it, there are three ways we can do a better job fertilizing the field so to speak and those three lakes supporting this tripod is innovation are collaboration, education and regulation. let's start with collaboration. i call it the silos part of my speech because it's true if we have any hope of overcoming difficulties that distance, drought, disease, we must reject decided stakeholders and instead goes solid, enduring partnerships for productivity. was with the silos circling. i made establishing and strengthening relationships
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between foundations and tarmac of a spirit agribusiness in academia. inaction is requiring that we all come together as actors at all levels and smallholder farmers literally down in the weeds to the u.n. general assembly. this cannot be a top-down exercise either and it means understanding the end-user's soviet corporate cultures and traditions into our efforts rather than working against them. if a local tribe thinks the sweet potato taste strange, and they simply won't eat it in our efforts will be wasted. instead, we should adopt the strategy of people like lynne gale who these efforts. she tells a great story to some of you may have heard about teaching chicken farmers and flood prone areas to become duck farmers and she does that for one simple reason. ducks swam.
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together, these cross-cultural public-private partnerships can invest in better see, better storage and farm to farm fish farm to market rosenberg always. they can invent new financing models for family farmers and assign mutually beneficial trade agreements to expand agricultural markets. usaid's feed the future is one example of this collaboration. so is the alliance for a green revolution chaired by the former u.n. secretary-general kofi annan supported by the lakes of the rockefellers of the gates foundation spirit averitt is a dynamic african led partnership to end hunger and poverty while safeguarding the environment and when you can embellish, and abreu dealer named and not sold the feeds and supplies that
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increase crop yield 150% to two and a half tons per acre. another promising example is the bio fortified sorghum project. this ongoing product brought together african donors, the private sector, research institutions, universities and other organizations. it's a multimillion dollar center to bio fortified with increased vitamin a, iron to address higher rate of vitamin a deficiency across the continent. the bio fortification a significant because sorghum is as probably most of the outcome of the second most important cereal in africa, but it has little nutritional value. it is also uniquely suited to attempt to africa's climate withstanding drought and water logging.
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as a consequence, bio fortified sorghum has potential to improve the diet of 500 million people. and over 30 countries to rely on as a dietary state will pay for in university classrooms to foreign fields and everything in between, these are the kinds of locally connected, locally grounded collaboration that will need to succeed in the coming century. in the scaling of these efforts will require significant resources to the global community. if we want to unleash our innovators era, it will take more than collaboration. or going to need some significant sustained educational efforts. and i don't mean stem education on the technical training is crucial to agricultural investment. instead, talking about engaging scat pics and vocally advocating
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sound science is a solution to her feet security challenges. we need to bridge the gap between the people who reduce food and the folks who consume it. there is an unfortunate global divide today between the real world and the rest of the world. we've all seen it in our own lives. food producers are increasingly disconnected from consumers in this country the secretary speaks often and eloquently about the need to bring the sides closer together and he's absolutely right. american agricultural productivity through the ruthless the farmers i represent would always start. they tell me about their yield per acre, how it's 10 times what it is in africa and how because the tech ologies are able to do things with their crops of their grand parents never even dreamed of doing and it's incredible to
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see. one of the few drawbacks of her extreme productivity is 1% of the american population feeds the other 99%. so the consumers now far separated from the producer that he or she doesn't understand what it takes to get the product fresh and safe to the supermarket today. a few years back some of you may remember this true story. lays potato chips reworked the packaging to include an image of a potato slice into potato chip and they did that because they conducted a survey in which a third of the respondents said lays potato chips were made from potatoes. talk about knowing where your food comes from. not to mention it's become increasingly wary of our food supply. many fear the role of science center food, even when there's evidence about the benefit of just attempted to describe.
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the golden rice story represents a good example developed over a decade ago, golden rice, a bio fortified crop to include beta-carotene, which the body converts to vitamin a has yet to reach the marketplace and the acceptance of golden rice remains uncertain, despite published research that suggests golden rice has potential to help millions if not tens of millions of children who suffer from vitamin a and a deficiency for rice is a staple food crop. given how much we improve our productivity to avoid a catastrophe as well as global issues of under and over nutrition we simply don't have the luxury of ruling out any solution centers dave, nutritious and can improve food security. we need to embrace all of agriculture in the small farms to feed the community to the large farms that see the world.
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as former president and more importantly peanut farmer jimmy carter once the, responsible biotechnology is not our enemy. hunger and starvation are. i couldn't remark. we also need to educate and inspire young people to help feed the world by owning this agricultural innovations. we should be better integrated agriculture classrooms whether his trips to local farms of math problems to irrigation. we could boost efforts of groups like the global 4-h network to teach our kids to be leaders and feeders of the 21st century. in fact on many college graduates are struggling to find jobs comeback recently read agricultural students these days are not only finding jobs, they are sending out multiple offers. a farmer who will feed the world in 2025 is 13 years old today.
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when she grows the comic to use other tools at her disposal to do that will depend on our ability to quiet concerns, treating her well and inspire her with significance of the task at hand. finally, what we must expand collaboration education offers some innovation can only flourish with a nice mark on streamlined kind face regulatory framework. sure, you have to credit the 21st century system that holds true to her oldest values of unleashing a good answers. a recent study found the agricultural bioscience industry is a $125 billion industry supporting nearly 2.5 million jobs with much more possible.
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it's been one of the few bright spots in this global economic downturn. scientists are improving livestock production by richard goering scuba rice can survive heavy flooding. in austria they experiment with wheat that can grow in saline soils which would expand arable land. it's astonishing. as is often the case, industries innovating faster than regulatory systems are able to respond. as a result, can take up up to $215 million to bring protection products to market. it can take as long as 20 years in $2,150,000,000 to discover and commercialize about church knowledge a pesticide resistant. we can establish a science-based regulatory system that respects help and environmental concerns and gives confidence to
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consumers and ensures more predictable timelines. when we do, innovation would be just the beginning of the innovations yet to come. another former president dwight eisenhower once commented, farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil in your thoughts and mouse from a cornfield. and it sure. it's pretty simple for a speaker to toss out some half baked notions. so don't take my recommendations about grain without a grain of salt. however, i spent a fair bit of time reflect in on these issues and i believe if we reorient those, how we engage the world and put food security at the center and encourage innovation through collaboration, education and regulation, were going to
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have been in right direction. but that's entirely up to us and those of us in the room and the millions of government officials and everyday citizens, a century and a half now, weller ran children children live in the world were only a few are fed or one where billions of their daily bread. with another long-winded speaker be allowed to point to an incredible discovery develop them a lot this year? arm of the seats be planted, never unleash the full power of product committee. i know which feature i would like to see and i bet i know what you want to. last year, a very dear friend of mine, and mentor and champion of food for all, senator george mcgovern passed away.
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just a few weeks ago we learned pope benedict the 16th will be stepping down and i am reminded of the words of a different pope, pope john the 23rd. a long time ago she met at the vatican. george is having a president kennedy speak for peace program and pope john shipped george mcgovern's hand. he looked him in the eye and said to him, when you meet your maker and he asks, did you feed the hungry, you can say yes i did. george mcgovern could say that a thousand times over. so can the millions of men and women and children whose venturesome opportunities peter families. even when we don't always
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realize or acknowledge it. by continuing to plow ahead, develop agricultural policies and innovative ways big and small, so indeed, all of us. thank you very much. [applause] >> wow. so it had three great addresses this morning. joe giving us the out look, secretary vilsack challenging us in terms of human risk that we could manage in senator daschle,
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just really getting an overwhelmingly moving tribute and challenged to american agriculture, all of us in this room. and now the floor is yours. our panelists are going to answer some of your questions. i don't know if we have makes them the room. yes, no? they are in the back. and being pointed to that. so people can line up and laugh a little bit of time before coffee break for questions. i'll tell you what, let's take a question from one of the students in the front. i think mike is coming out.
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if you can bring it to this woman in the front corner, yes, thank you. go at it. go ahead, sir. >> maybe i'll just stand. my name is travis jake. i'm an undergraduate student at -- idea mark [inaudible] [inaudible]
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>> who wants to start? >> will good, you'll hear some better answers is a good chance to think about the question at golf. i would say increase productivity. i think senator daschle as a deputy mention i'm a free-speech imac. that is really the challenge. we look at the population growth and challenges because of things that climate change, resource depletion and other things. it's really a challenge and that's where our research money needs to go. >> i agree with joe. i think you just heard me expound for too long of what i consider to be the biggest challenge. we know the challenges out there
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in the resource is another tremendous collaborative talent but it's going to take to harness resources and therein lies our biggest opportunity. can we take all the extraordinary talent we have, their resources and innovation potential is there a direct it towards meeting the extraordinary demographic needs as we go forward. that to me is the biggest part of this. >> q. now, i think the biggest challenge is figuring ways in which in several parts of this country and on the road can be appreciated and understood, recognized and supported. in order for us to have increased productivity, we have to have young people want to farm. reactive young people interstate
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in the research important and necessary to figure out how to do more with less than they have to have political leaders willing to invest resources to allow us to continue to promote our goods into the research of senator daschle indicated. i said the biggest challenge is the cap that exist today between those who live in cities and suburbs of those who live and work in rural areas and i think we've begun to turn the corner on this. the center alluded to the ad in the super bowl. there is the beginning of that. agriculture is challenge to speak with a single voice about this. far too often i were closer talks to itself, faced with itself, conflicts with itself instead of conveying a positive, proactive message and strategically engaging folks outside of agriculture so
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there's a greater extent than understanding of the importance of agriculture. the combination of the three, a nicer engage the deputy as well. that's the biggest challenge. spinlock i want to go to the opportunity site just to make an observation. i was interested when you talk about the 13-year-old who's going to the farmer for 2025 and as he described the farmer. i'm interested in the changing demographics in american agriculture and 30% of our farm operators are women. that is a 19% increase over the previous senses that we also asked what does determining what's going into a lot of our work and lands this country. so i think that an interesting opportunity. he came into my mind when the
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senator used that, talking about the 13-year-old in our next question is from a young woman. >> good morning. the graduate student at tuskegee university with the research focus in toxicology. taking that call for us here. my question is actually for tom daschle and mr. tom vilsack. he made a profound statement regard to the regulatory process and how it amending in regard to the new innovations as they come out. i'm a researcher so i understand the laboratory to be implemented in regard to policy and regulation process. what challenges and strategic lands have been discussed at this point? its cutting-edge in regard to how to bridge the gap in short and commence the process so we can take the innovation we have in the laboratory to be impactful and meaningful and
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substantial to sustainability and continuation of seeking america. >> fortunately, we have begun the process of trying to short the amount of time it takes. one of the opportunities receives from the fiscal challenges for his encouraging folks to usda took a process improvement and particularly we started the biotech regulatory process because when i came into the office, it took over 900 days for us to make a decision about a petition to deregulate a particular technology. today that is less than 365 days as we take in roughly 600 days out of the process or process improvement. the second challenge is not just a regulatory process, the synchronizing with everyone else's and we just announced several months ago an opportunity for china to begin the process of synchronizing
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their process with ours because they wait until we have completed our process before they even begin that process. release that tend to agree to a pilot or they will begin simultaneously, two preliminary steps and in their process after we had ours. this is a major issue and it reflects the difference of sophistication of regulatory processes. rest assured we are looking at ways in which we can streamline the process. even if we do, it becomes time consuming. >> let me just say, i applaud the secretary and his team for the remarkable progress they've made in attempting to address the challenges you have eloquently articulated in your question. and we've always got to strive to find a balance between risk adversity and innovation and
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that is always a judgment and ongoing process. there is no answer that long challenge. i've always felt there's three-piece. one is preparation. we've got to anticipate to the extent we can and be prepared for it. the second is partnership. we have to work in a public private sector environment, where that partnership can move the process forward. and the third is pragmatism. it's important to be pragmatic as we go forward and the more pragmatic, the more prepared and partnered we are to be. >> by minister taro. an international student. my question is for secretary will set. i live in a very rural county in california. we produce diversified $.1 billion.
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however, one of the poorest in the nation has 20% unemployment. how could we use a fight that $1 billion to reproduce to help producing that because it's really poor county. so what can we do about it? >> are several things. first of all, it's important to continue to expand market opportunities for the 5 billion becomes 5.5 billion, become 6 billion, 7 million. it goes back to productivity, but also ability to promote domestic and foreign market opportunities. one of the benefit of our trade efforts we've seen every dollar we invest that usda trade promotion generates $35 of additional trade opportunities so you want to obviously continue that. secondly, it's important to look for ways we can expand markets by using a product differently and specifically whatever
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residue maybes old from production of that product. virtually every crop pests crop residue. there's plant material, biomass for trees. how can we convert those in far more valuable commodities and ingredients? i think were seen about the explosion in america and agriculture in particular and trying to figure out how to use resource is more effectively to produce chemicals? had been in effect dreamer corncob has been converted to a classic battle. i've been to in wisconsin where they're basically converting armor that will be stronger in current armor for military and police force. so this just amazing opportunities here. third, there has to be a commitment to community.
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we have a thing called strike force that usda, where we're focusing on persistently poor areas of the country. taking our teams there and making sure all the resources and partnerships the senator talked about her being utilized and we find that at times in persistently poor areas, folks are discouraged about government because they haven't been to help and assistance. the strike force, were developing new business opportunities in new markets and were beginning to support and strengthen communities and i think the president has proposed in his lovers of opportunity after a real focus providing intensive care to these communities that have high unemployment and we started up a strike force and i think you're going to see more of that. >> so i know these really brilliant questions of young
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people have intimidated jabal, but i have time for tomorrow. yes, sir. the mike is coming coming your way. >> thank you. hello, i'm justin taylor. i work for rest of life science, and a secretary bill vietnam. over the past three years the whole nation has been involved in a debate about health care annunciators struck by the nucleus or cultural committee have not really done, i know now, a part of the conversation on the national level about the relationship between the diet and health care in the united states. coaches like to hear from the leaders of the agricultural community, how could they be better engaged in a conversation and what are things we can do going forward to help with that conversation in direction? >> you know, there's been a concerted effort to usda on this
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particular issue and perhaps it hasn't been couched in quite the same way you couched it, but there is obviously a deep concern to usda on the health of the nation. it's one of the reasons for putting my plate initiative to basically simplify what a healthy plate looks like, with half-truths and vegetables come in the other protein and so forth. we've tried to reformulate school lunch program to provide more fruits and vegetables and low-fat dairy and whole grains, less fat, sodium and sugar. we've improved the wic program to provide for healthy choices. producers that education efforts to educate those on the food stamp program, how they might go to stretch their dollars better by purchasing fruits and vegetables. we've done a study suggesting they are not mistakes and for
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some people think they are. with expanded opportunities for farmers market so folks have access to fresh fruits and vegetables may look at several other initiatives we will launch this year to enhance on that. so that's been on couched in terms of particularly the school lunch and school breakfast programs and dealing with the obesity issue in the hungary shoot. they're sort of twin e. those in too many youngsters suffer from either one of those and they don't perform as well in school. they have chronic diseases they take into adulthood, which obviously impedes their quality of life and increases health care costs. so there's quite a bit about dignity and we have a super tracker program that every million people are currently using that basically provides tips and information on how you might make healthy lecture he says. i get an e-mail once every couple weeks about whether or
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not i'm doing what i said i was going to do, more fruits and vegetables. so i think there is a concerted effort and you probably see a bit more promotion of that in the upcoming months as march is school nutrition month and that is enough to emphasize. the last thing as we see nature mattock increase in gardens school gardens and our people's garden. i often comment that i appreciate the first lady gets a lot of attention on her one garden. renowned 1800 peoples gardens throughout the united states and the world and these are sponsored after his working with keep america beautiful and as a result we've donated nearly 3 million pounds of produce to food kitchens and food banks. so she gets a lot of attention, but i guess she's first lady, so maybe she should.
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we do have 1800 complementary gardens. >> i would just add, first of all ipod the secretary's efforts here. they've made her progress. at this rate the off field that have this on the 20-yard line with 80 yards to go. we all have to recognize far more collectively and concerted way than today how much of the challenge we have been changing our health care system to have on the system. that means a far greater degree of tension to exercise as well as nutrition. nutrition has two components. it has the combination of foods we eat that the food plate depicts, but it's also a fact durbar proportions. our portions are so much bigger and we have to begin to address that part of it as well.
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the caloric intake for children has led to a situation with a fixed or concedes is going down in the country and we can turn that around. but it's going to take a lot more education and a concerted effort around nutrition and taking personal responsibility for one's health and a wellness system rather than a health system. >> the owner of the last question. i'm going to go way over there. >> hello. many of the streams from fresno, california. this question is for the entire panel. it keys off the questions of health care and food wastage. has the usda had any discussion recently about introducing some higher food grade in various products? for example, when you look at cheese to attack about a 40-pound block of cheddar or
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when we look at cotton, there's only a certain number, but when you see how cotton is grown for cheeses made for various items of produce are grown, as ways to of produce in commodities greater than better quality than the grade a standards. any discussion on not? that way we could be selling products and incentivizing growers that will grow and be sold as a fresh product is supposed to be blended in on an average basis to the processing market. >> i guess i'll take a crack at that since they gained 15 minutes of fame sinuous ago when it was the ad marketing service administrator because we changed the grades of swiss cheese and
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as the cnn sensation, run making fun of me because we were changing for the highest standard. it became the story of government run amok. anyhow, it is very important because it helps with the slicing machines and the swiss cheese industry. i'm so proud of that one. anyhow, the standards are things we work in collaboration with industry and so we are always anxious for industry to come up with innovations in standards that we help oversee. so that is a partnership, though we are always working on. >> i would just add, in order for partnerships to work, there has to be a constructive conversation and unfortunately, all too often, folks will be
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encouraging conflict instead of collaboration. and so, yesterday i had a great conversation with leaders in the organic world who are basically making the case that her can ask are different than general commodities. and because they are different, the systems we have the usda, where we try to apply insurance regulatory systems may not recognize the uniqueness of her can ask and that we really need to be thinking differently in creating different structures and systems. it is a very constructive conversation because folks came to the table with this is a problem for us and we are not complaining about it. we are pointing out this is a problem and we take you out of think about it. that's a very constructive way to approach a problem. we need more of that type of
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discussion in all aspects, rather than this feeling that somehow the government is the enemy. it's not. it's a facilitator, a halt her, and a sister. one of the great things as missionaries almost all london cells to greater collaboration. so i'm not sure if that discussion about creating, i do think there's a growing recognition of the diversity of agriculture needs to be celebrated. it's not something to be concerned about consistency to be to be put in place to promote the diversity because it will create more economic opportunity, which in turn will encourage people and lead to more young people involved in aquaculture. >> ladies and gentlemen, we have coffee in the foyer. please thank our wonderful panelist this morning.
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[applause] [inaudible conversations] >> from the very start, we told the board the approach we were going to take, which is pretty straightforward. and remember, we were spared to fix gm. that was the mission, go make this a viable company again. so we were all focused combat the message were going to design, and saw the world's best
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vehicles. were going to move quickly. we need your support and we need your input and so we changed a few things about the board meeting. they shorten them considerably. we stay away from the details or didn't do it on the weeds and how you build a car, but the bigger questions of financinganother battle, positioning, marketing. the board was supportive of that and we kept them informed and we just took off. >> up next, on both tvs "after words," journalists helaine olen talks about the personal finance history. her book is "pound foolish:
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exposing the dark side of the personal finance industry" she sat down with russell wilds of good posts last month. >> host: helaine, i enjoyed your book weidner managed and i look forward to discussing it. it was a pleasurable read, very easy to read and i was caught a set title exposing the dark side of the personal finance industry, which later in the book you call the personal finance industry complex come which includes huddled investment tanks in brokers and planners, but the financial media. seminar theaters, newsletter publishers. through that includes yourself and not hunch is a former columnist for "the l.a. times." you get their money makeover column. you include yourself as part of this complex and point out with some guilt that you are responsible for giving people an illusion of control. you talk about that throughout the book.
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what do you mean by addition of control? >> guest: personal-finance starts in the 1930s with sylvia porter and it's a spinoff out of the south of business at the 1930s. in 1930s are known from everything from hard economic times, everything from alcoholics anonymous to napoleon hill thinking get rich come into various social activist movements. fascism and communism both have a huge appeal. and sylvia porter develops personal finance over a period of years and her goal is to educate people so the great depression will never have it again. it's very much an idea we can teach people certain skills and if they learn the skills, we will all be okay. but what goes on over time is personal-finance slowly becomes severed to a greater extent from
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this. so it becomes less about the political back bone of it, which is always be fair to sylvia porter for a good part of her career. she was a devout keynesian for example and become simply a list of tips. it becomes like any other form of self-help, how to cook a perfect apricot, how to toilet train your toddler. follow these 10 steps in all be okay and if you don't follow these 10, it won't be okay. and therefore if you did follow these 10 steps, it has to work out and if it didn't, you didn't follow these 10 steps. it's all anew. that server. here's what happened to personal finance. >> you see the same parallel between the financial media. if you don't look like this gorgeous come anorexic model there something wrong with you. if you don't look like a couple getting 25% return, looking to
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retire by age 42 or something wrong with you. >> i hadn't added it that way until you mentioned it, but of course anna winter isn't sitting her office at the scene i'm going to put this 90-pound five to 10 perfect moment in and make some person feel terrible about what her life is. in fact there is a parallel to that. hoodoo showcase either perfect people who don't is perfectly. that experience note though fortune which is another huge part in missing teen can be said. most people don't have the ability to achieve this. they don't have the ability. misfortunes have been on in good times and so on down the line. so most of us are not financially equivalent of models. >> host: true.
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you also mention a generation or two ago you had the same concerns us today. he mentioned the book two thirds of people 30 years ago had fixed pensions provided by employers and now two thirds of us have access to 401(k)s. another is commonplace sponsored rather than employer sponsored programs. ask ottawa to buy one other thing first, the idea is become so complicated. i was born in the mid-1960s. credit cards were less than 10 years old. the idea i'd be expected to know about my credit card would be absurd. there were no just the rate mortgages. no atm machines. there were no retirement accounts. the whole structure we now take for granted simply didn't exist and so we were expected to
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retirement becomes an issue where in the late 1970s, first the individual account is simply a supplement for social security and then followed by the 401(k), and historic accident. too happy to talk about more? so the 401(k) develops a concern among executives at kodak and a few other companies want to be the ticket salaries tax-deferred, high earners were talking about here. so somebody goes to congress and eventually there's this code in the text for the late 1970s called the 401(k) and these high-end executives get their way to put money aside on a tax-deferred basis. no one thinks anything of this except for one man, an attorney who sees they should be high-end object is.
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he gets a rate of administration to agree with his viewpoint on this thing takes place by this time of the early 1980s. the next part, which nobody foresaw a busy idea to bring a minute, we don't have to give people pensions, do we? these 401(k)s could substitute a pension and this is where the corporate cost cutters start traipsing and if they even if you're going to match 3% or six are sent, it's cheaper than funding the pension and a lot of people won't sign up anyway. slowly but surely over a period of many years, the numbers stripped down to where we are today. >> this is all happening while the stock market was reaching the people thought they were ever going to get 25%. the stock market increase that was begun in doubles again
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between 1982 and either 2000 or 2007. so people began to think this is the natural order of things. i galloped as for the late 1990s for people expected 30% average annual returns for perpetuity. not one year, but every year. we now have a bias towards the recent past and peoplesoft is almost almost is a guaranteed investment scheme. but to be fair, that's how it was patched at them. going to think that money magazine and financial journalism in the 401(k) is the little engine that could. keep putting your money away and you're going to be fine. >> most people feel they are going to retire destitute. >> guest: 80% of us think the 401(k)s of failure at the same
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time we don't want to get rid of it, which is fascinating to me. the only thing i can think of this everybody likes to get their money, but second, when you have real social change, one of the things really interesting to me is that when it's complete, you forget how it once was. alias is the example of what i tell people he married women had known the to credit card the ice by side jazz strapped oakland. people just can't even conceive of that world anymore, yet was 40 years ago in the same thing is true of the retirement universe. we don't see any longer how it once was. the people who at pensions are slowly but surely dying off from one of the things that most intrigued me in the post to fascinate. as you would think we'd all say let's get ourselves pensions again and the survey data shows people are saying that.
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if the response has not been to organize. in the response is sent to get pensions away from the last people who have them cut people like the auto workers union, teachers, government workers. i'm not saying we want that. we are saying let's take cares. >> host: we have known this personal finance industry allegedly seeking to help us with all this come back city. as he points out in the boat, that hope is dubious at best. you introduced term fiduciary standard and talk about how important it is to understand what that means if you do. we should explain what fiduciary standard means, why it's important and why should know what it means before talking to any of financial professional? >> anywhere between two thirds and 90% have no clue what this means depending the survey you the cab. the fiduciary standard is the
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idea that someone giving you financial advice will act in your best interest. if in fact, the vast majority of people who call themselves advisers are salesmen who have a duty to adhere to the suitability standard, which is simply could not is the best lamest way to describe it. the way l.a. to describe it if they are going to a store and buying a suit. if you go to the store where they sell you the suit, that will have to fit really well. the color had to be flattering. it would have to be suitable for the occasion you're using it for. if you want to store under under the suitability standard, it could be kind of okay as long as there was a huge embarrassed that. it could be across town and i might just look at your function. maybe it makes you look to hippie or something.
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and at the same time most of us when we go to a story quite aware of the fact assessment is recommended that standard and a chest for it. when they go for financial products, we have no clue and of course, what's more important? >> when you look for a financial professional, usually you see an alphabet soup. how do you know whether a financial professional is operating with a fiduciary standard is looking out for my best interest or merely the suitability standard and and i look at the seat fitting her portfolio. how do you know? >> guest: you have to ask. there is obviously certain things. >> host: the national association -- >> guest: i'm blanking. housecoat personal financial advisor. >> guest: you have to be careful because they've had their schedules, too.
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for the most part, one of the things that goes on his people to ask questions. they often get to their codifies series not by doing diligent research, but the guy at the country club at bernie made us for my cousin bob's best friend or my next-door neighbor or someone who came and presented at my children's school revealed each facility. so people are discouraged from asking questions because these people, even so they are your friend and of course we don't tend to ask our friends hard questions. so he wrecked in my best interest? and are you working to the fiduciary standard? >> host: a lot of people in the financial professionals through free dinners. is there anything wrong with getting a free steak in a pinot noir were good guys against going in the first place? >> guest: apparently when i gave an interview to reuters if
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there is one thing i could be in it would be free mail. the free meal seemed so harmless theater going to get a nice steak and it got faster and you don't have to buy anything. people who thought timeshares can tell you this is it going to end very well for you. the problem as our defenses are down by wiki. we know this. and these people can be very appealing and i'm going to explain why. there's a whole apparatus on how to be appealing. there are techniques or they are told to write people. you sometimes get e-mails, but mostly it's dealing with the over 65, it mostly snail mail and use a hot button issue, social security, outliving your savings, tell how an old age, protecting money from your children on occasion comes to.
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and you are going to scare them, make them afraid this is going to happen and then had to have to solve. of course in the letter you don't say what it is. and then when you come into the presentation, and i sat through several of these over time, though i have to say i'm more scared my presence is changing the presentation slightly because i don't look like the demo yet. i don't look like i'm over 65. i look like somebody saying greek.are there to protect them. the spiel often as social security is going to be cut. your taxes are going to be raised. you have a two thirds chance of outliving your retirement savings. but talk to me and they present their solution and it's often some dean is a high commission
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product at a variable annuity or indexed annuity phenolic until he was there some good ones, some not so good ones but chances are they're a free lunch or dinner are not the ones you want to be. these are things that come with extremely high cost basis going on over to deport the point you can't get yourself up to them without severe difficulty. the stories of people sold on these investments are legion and you could do a google search and you will find tons of stuff on one page. >> host: you didn't say anything about the quality of the meal. good steak at these? >> guest: this is hysterical. if you need advice right now is to get to the food after the presentation so people are listening overclocking forks and then parse that they are not distracted. my experience was that left a lot of hungry people. so i was sitting there waiting
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and waiting and waiting and they kept saying the kitchen is delayed. the kitchen is delayed. and if cnn was fine. i wouldn't describe it as four-star. in fact, the civil. what kind of restaurant you should go to. it should be a good restaurant. it's not low-end. nobody is taking you to chipotle. ..
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>> commission is again, a percentage of the sale. the problem with the model model, people again different commissions, incentives are different, often the best financial products like mutual funds do not come
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with high commission actually rarely if ever, as a result what is sold to people is not necessarily a great deal. but they don't know that because it is next to somebody working with the commission with a fiduciary standard. they don't have their best interest are. we have scandals and i managed to get about jpmorgan chase selling people on very high fees managed mutual funds not doing well and costing a fortune. the banks don't see them as people being to be helped helped, but as a revenue stream. >> host: you often don't know the commission. >> guest: not unless you
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ask. no law doesn't say it has to be presented in anything looking like english. these papers are presented, 20 pages, a tiny and single spaced and people over 65 don't read that anyway without reading glasses. i'm not reading it. are you? that is a you do for living, but nobody does. the data shows depending on the survey we don't know how they're being paid which tells you right there you are charged a commission because if you were charged by the over a that would be listed. >> host: talk about regulatory machines has there been anything positive over the years? >> if the board has done some things to make it clear
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how long he will pay off your credit card. this is the problem of disclosure. people see if you pay the minimum it will take to two years or 10 years and they say okay. rather than it should be an incentive. you see more people question the system. unfortunately sometimes that just leads people to pull out altogether and the numbers last year more people took money out of the stock market instead of putting in. maybe that is a good response for those who are older the and cannot take chances anymore. >> host: one of my favorite sections is talk
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about the monday show, the in annual event, a carnival in orlando i dunno if i want to go. >> guest: never been the house to go at least one see know how americans think about money. >> host: i look forward to meeting characters like oliver with the $8,000 today sevener how to beat the market. he said he almost never makes a bad trade, people say can you tell us about your losers? i say'', note, i have then i will set a losing trade in 2010 but it was more break-even. and then a few pages later, it is up to you, the consumer to ask the salesman , why if their tools and investments are so good, where they breaking asia sweat trying to sell
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its you and me not trading of the cayman islands. few people do. are we really as gullible as that? >> guest: a lot of people are. to be fair, there is some greed but there is a lot of desperation. with the money show people are 55:00 a.m. overhung this is not like the day traders of the 1990's those who were greedy but they see that their brokers or advisers are
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going nowhere. interest rates have been a zero with no end in sight. added is incredibly scary environment. and the the money show holds itself out we will help you. they're doing something distressing we know we peek in the mid to late 50s financially and tend to be less doubting that is why a elderly people say they are happier. [laughter] there is something to look forward to but why they are more gullible. for the third part there is a concerted effort to since the 1950's but it is given
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legitimacy. there is "fortune" magazine and 10 stocks and i always love and 2007 they picked aig and they said it is no enron. that is absolutely true. the government did not bail out and ron. cnbc gives legitimacy to this. so people are not financially savvy so they come to the money show in the looks great. the people are persuasive persuasive, no way walks around saying don't trust the word i am saying. these people say things this is what they believe and they will try these products to see what happens. i spoke to one person from the book and he said he lost a couple hundred thousand
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dollars during the dot com boom and i said well listen did you take from that? he said stop-loss orders. you don't know what to say at a certain point*. i can imagine his children ripping their hair out. >> host: that means the price drops precipitously but that does not serve to protect him. >> guest: but one thing i will never forget seniors, don't earn 2% at your bank we can get 30% per year you don't know what to say. >> host: new point* out the house flipping seminars are noxious and cunning and people lose a bundle. what makes people think without any experience in real estate that they could
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flip houses? >> guest: the monday show gets this like when you deal with gave ramsey and suzie norman of lot of it is all sacrifice to build wealth slowly and cutting back and learn to deal with it. don't have this microphone. but with the wealth and to rule, they won get one thing. they get we need more money. be do. our networks plunged 40% 2007 through 2010 and salaries have been stagnant or falling. but instead of saying you need to cut back pork sector fate they hold out a solution. they will lead the way. with robert kheel saw he does not tell you to give up your daily trip to start?
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he tells you to buy the ground underneath then you to buy as many coffee as you would like. the of there part is this was sold to us. it is very easy to say you should have known better. you don't buy a house he cannot afford. but this was presented as a perfectly legitimate strategy. people were not doubting. you had to go on-line to find the people to understand it was not a good idea. day-to-day use are reputable people promoting this strategy. david bock had a deal was wells fargo he was promoting and said he went on 2020 and
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helped the young couple buy a house with no money down. he actually identified their factor which i believe was video games and kids' toys and some pageant work with the girl and of course, now they rent out the house to one top of it they had to move. but they managed to keep the house but it is promoted as legitimate and now we blame people for it. >> host: we need to take a short break i suggest we go get 83 then we will talk about the rest of your book. >> from the very start reid told the of board of the approach we would take to a straight forward and we were
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sent there to fix gm that was the mission still makes this a viable company again. we were all focused and that brought the message we will design, so, build the world's best vehicles, quickly, we need your support, and we need your input, so we changed a few things about the board meeting, we shorten them considerably, we stayed away from the details or did not get into the weeds of how to build a car but bigger questions of financing financing, morale, positioni ng, marketing, the board is very supportive of that. we kept them informed, and we took off.
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>> host: helaine olen we were talking over the break with the financial products that are so bad, so that probably no one should look at them, variable annuities in particular. it offers a future incomes dream but they think it happened between now and then and nobody could understand including me. they are long, sticky, and you believe even the issuers themselves to understand. >> guest: what happened was they were offering
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amazing deals with extra percentage points above earnings so people were lapping it up. it turns out the underlying models for some renown as an insurance company expected and they began to lose money. they made it the products so complicated even they did not understand how they try to make offers to people who bought these annuities anywhere from the mid part of the decade through a few years ago to buy them back with a lump-sum payout so they can get them back at chantilly everything is so complicated they don't understand it. how would you? >> and sold on huge commissions and their cousins are sold even higher commissions often the
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subject of the free lunch and a free dinner we discussed. look at the sales literature for the salesman is extraordinary. people are promised cruises, trips, exotic locales if they could just sell five 1000's or $1 million per year. the reason is because they are a hard sell. people don't understand and liberal or financial, if you don't understand it, i don't get involved. the sales materials were extraordinary. i could not believe them. >> host: we were talking about gullibility but at one point* in the book you say you were sorely tempted to take what mad money jim cramer says into the exact opposite were you kidding?
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>> if i did not have small kids i may have tried -- tried it. somebody at the numbers didn't ran all of his the information through various computer simulations the best thing you could do was short's anything he mentioned. if it was as small as the company more likely the short woodwork. is saw a lot harder to move ibm. >> host: the three point* out a short is a strategy traders use to make money off of stock they think it will fall. >> guest: the is he just mentioning momentum plays the already go up? barron's did his record several time walking away beyond and impressed, but he has a huge following, people
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really lot -- like kim and make stocks look fun. i watch the show, i confess i a see a screaming man why would anybody want to scream at me? [laughter] but apparently people find this entertaining. he can make it seem very down-to-earth and son. but the average person will not monitor the stocks the way they need to. people have told me over and over investing over based on a stock tip and to be fair to jim cramer, if you ask than people thought they could hold on to the stock they were not treating it out which was his specialty. it is not a great fit but cnbc makes money promotes
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its -- by promoting it. >> host: just type been jim cramer performance results there are numerous studies revealing his scheme. i it agreed. do the opposite. a lot of people revere dave ramsey or suze orman. to say that it is hurting as more than helping us? >> guest: i say for the past several years a lot of us feel like we live through the equivalent of hurricane sandy here is an umbrella, here is sandbags sandbags, and he will be fine and even better i still use the umbrella and the sandbag. the. >> host: could you be specific? >> guest: suze orman says
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she does not go in the stock market herself has a money navigator for a time with the mutual-fund advisor and getting amazing results. it turned out because he had a typographical error and misstated return numbers of the index. it is a lot easier to get great results when you do that. she was doing that. dave ramsey has told people to this day they could expect 12% average annual returns of the market i guess they could in 2012 but that is not a number people have never gotten. the unearthing he has done that i find amazing the hurtful, he urges people not to declare bankruptcy. this is an important point*.
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bankruptcy exist for a reason. you may not like it, nobody wants to declare bankruptcy. despite what people think the united states is now full of people running up their credit cards then running to the bankruptcy court. it is full of a lot of people who live in the uncertain society's stock with huge health care expenses, families fall apart, lose their job and run up debts. they start small businesses in we have evidence to show those whose start small businesses and up in the grips the court more often. then those in the corporate job. so i put out a request for success stories and people said they pay down their debt with dave ramsey. in one case somebody was hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, an airline pilot still learning what he
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would have earned in 1991, most of his dead came from the ill-timed home renovation before the salary was cut and he and his wife started a small business, and they ended up with more debt. and i said why don't you declare bankruptcy? they said because dave says not to. i couldn't believe it would really help this person to not declare bankruptcy. the message was coming you would never get out of this or if he was in is so far out in the future with the retirement prospects and children's college would not be worth it. i just don't think that it buys works for so many people. >> host: you point* to the
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high level of bankruptcy with consumers say more than half for all caused by medical cost and rising medical costs is one number of reasons that americans are not saving and you talk about other reasons. you say the financial journal tells us it is our fault but really is not. >> guest: be alcee people spending too much money we immediate -- immediate lee is in that is going on. if you walk out the door you see people carry shopping bags but in fact, look at the survey's data to reach your -- richie and they say they cannot save money leaving -- living paycheck to paycheck i refuse to
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believe two-thirds of the public is lying to the pollsters. in fact, when you look at it, elizabeth warren is the goddess of these statistics, our salaries stagnated men do not learn what their dad did it is harder to judge with women, to income houses is not where there were several decades ago. but what has gone up up, education. health care has gone up rates exceeding inflation for decades. housing famously to cough rent is still skyrocketing. the cost of having children has increased through the entire post 2008 period.
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so's the things that people cannot get themselves out of has gone up considerably those that identify as luxury. these takeover one week of work to buy a television. now with is one day. clothing used to be more expensive but now comes from the third world it is cheap. that is not really our issue it is the things you cannot get away from. i joke in the book was my own experiment is my husband and i decided we had to cut expenses. we said that is it for "the new york times" we're reading get on line anyway to hell with them. we will cut it out we canceled "new york times" we were proud of ourselves for about two weeks was $50 per month expense then we get a
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notice health insurance is going up $100 per month then they pay less now why of $50 behind and then some and a final kicker was "the new york times" turned around to stop free web access as a writer i need "the new york times." [laughter] for the record i felt very guilty in the first place and that was the end of it. you cannot cut the "new york times" every year. there's only so much you can cut. >> host: you should go for the free steak dinner. [laughter] >> guest: then it would cut my restaurant bill but then i would sign up for the annuity. >> host: talk about focusing on women to play on the stereotypes that they are helpless around money and you take strong issue with that. >> guest: i do.
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i do manage to many in my own house but the whole idea that winning can manage money because they are to be emotional, we're too nice which i say how you graduate high school and think that about women is another subject. one-woman advisor say women lacked strategic and logical thinking which i thought was hysterical. that we can do in real need help and there is the financial dirt negative services industry, a basic economic fact, women have less money because they earn less than men, they live longer and have more responsibilities on the money. there's three problems right there. a lot of talk does not reflect reality.
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and women know more likely to turn to a financial services industry for advice. the way men never ask directions and women always will, is the same thing. so they end up pitching the idea to help women but a lot of the a vice but to their credit to the past couple years they have gotten a bit more open that women do live longer and have issues with then the response is women should save more money. it is just like ginger rogers had to do everything at that fred astaire did backwards and in high heels. if you have more responsibilities and make
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less does not make sense. i found this was across the board. one of the things that really distressed me looking at the website for twentysomething women to learn about money sometimes the analogy was fun, they once put together the things that people say and what women and men say about money it was very funny except it was all about shopping in the.mention once one of the reason women were having problems because the guy next to them was earning more than they were. >> host: i have seen studies, i am sure more than one that women are better investors thin

Capital News Today
CSPAN February 21, 2013 11:00pm-2:00am EST

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